Hope in View, But Rates Didn’t Move
- Andrew Nott
- Jul 21
- 2 min read
The latest snapshot of Australian consumer mood is in — think of it as a barometer for national optimism, or that feeling you get when someone asks, “So… how are we going?” Well, in July, people replied with a polite shrug: “A bit better than last month, but still cautious.”
The Big Picture. Sentiment ticked up just 0.6% to 93.1 out of 200. That’s like giving someone a pat on the back: appreciated, but not life-changing. And it still sits below 100 — the magical number when optimism and pessimism are in balance.
Why the Icebreaker Was Cancelled. You might blame the surprise move by the RBAto keep rates steady (they were expected to take them down). Before the decision, confidence was 95.6; after, it dropped to 92. That’s the difference between a high-five and a sigh.
Life at Home, One Year In
Comparing finances to a year ago? They’re ~5% happier — a modest win.
Looking ahead a year? Slightly more upbeat, nudging into positive territory.
So yes, people are thinking they might be a bit better off soon. That’s good news.
What’s Cooking—or Not
Over the next year, people expect interest rates to dip — the mood is getting hopeful. In fact, the mortgage expectations measure fell to a 13-year low, showing more Aussies think mortgages will get cheaper.
But opinions are split: while the next year looks a bit brighter, the next five years? Not so much. That long-term outlook took a dip.
Hold Off on That Sofa Purchase. Fewer people now believe it’s a great time to splurge on big-ticket items — that index dropped around 2.6%, reversing last month’s enthusiasm. Plus, home-buying mood cooled off, falling 5% — especially in Queensland where confidence in the property market dipped sharply.
Jobs & Economy? A Mixed Bag
People are still worried about the job front — more expect joblessness to remain stable rather than improve.
The short-term economic outlook crept up slightly, but the long-term view tumbled — consumers seem unsure about where things are heading.
Bottom line: Australians are feeling cautiously hopeful — their wallets are slightly happier, and they expect rates to drop. But they’re keeping the credit card in their pocket, waiting for clearer signs on jobs and the economy.
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Source: Westpac- Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Report - July 2025
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